The International Energy Agency (IEA) has predicted that renewable energy sources will account for half of the global electricity demand by 2030. However, the global target to triple renewable capacity by then is at risk.
On the same day it was revealed that Portugal had already produced as much solar energy by 5th September as it did throughout 2023, the IEA released a report warning that the COP28 goal of tripling global renewable energy capacity by 2030 is unlikely to be met. According to REN (Redes Energéticas Nacionais), 2024 is set to be a record year for solar energy production in Portugal.
In the first nine months of the year, Portugal generated 3.99 TWh of solar energy, surpassing the 3.6 TWh produced in the whole of 2023. As of September, the country had already ensured a record-breaking year for solar energy production, with renewables accounting for 73% of national consumption, of which 10% was from solar.
Despite Portugal’s contribution, the IEA stated that global renewable energy capacity will only increase 2.7 times between 2022 and 2030, falling short of the target set during last year’s UN Climate Change Conference.
Nevertheless, the IEA’s “Renewables 2024” report predicts an additional 5,500 gigawatts (GW) of renewable capacity between 2024 and 2030. This represents nearly three times the growth seen from 2017 to 2023. The IEA’s executive director, Fatih Birol, noted that this increase matches the current combined energy capacity of China, the European Union, India, and the United States. According to the IEA’s forecasts, renewable energy will meet half of the global electricity demand by 2030.
China is expected to contribute nearly 60% of the new renewable energy capacity added worldwide between 2024 and 2030, making up almost half of the planet’s total renewable capacity by the decade’s end.
The IEA also projects that solar photovoltaic (PV) power will account for 80% of this growth, driven by the construction of large-scale solar plants and the expansion of rooftop solar installations for businesses and households. Wind energy is also expected to rebound, with growth rates doubling from 2024 to 2030 compared to the previous period from 2017 to 2023.
While the objective to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030 seems compromised, the IEA believes the target is still achievable if governments tackle policy uncertainties, streamline licensing procedures, and build or modernise 25 million kilometres of transmission lines. Moreover, 70 countries, responsible for 80% of global renewable energy capacity, are on track to meet or exceed their renewable energy goals for 2030.
By 2030, the global surge in renewable energy will result in a 20% share of total energy production, up from 13% last year.
